At its peak, CPI may fall to near 3, and local eco

CPI may fall back to around 3% in May, local economic risks looming

CPI may fall back to around 3% local economic risks looming

China Construction machinery information

Guide: the National Bureau of statistics will release CPI and other economic data today (June 9), and the General Administration of Customs will release the import and export situation in May on June 10. After summarizing the forecasts of several institutions, it is found that the CPI growth rate in May is likely to continue the downward trend in April, which is estimated to be about 3.1%. And PPI year-on-year decline is very

the National Bureau of statistics will release CPI and other economic data today (June 9), and the General Administration of Customs will release the import and export situation in May on June 10

after summarizing the forecasts of several institutions, it is found that the CPI growth rate in May is likely to continue the downward trend in April, which is estimated to be about 3.1%. The year-on-year decline in PPI is likely to continue to expand

the prices of means of production have fallen continuously, inventories are overstocked, and the risk of local deflation in China has emerged. Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities, said that the PMI in May was significantly lower than that in April, only slightly higher than the 50 boundary, which verified that the economy showed a rapid downward trend. The inventory index of finished products rose sharply, indicating poor sales of enterprises

"the new order index fell below 50, in a shrinking range, indicating that future economic activity will be more sluggish. In addition, the macroeconomic data released earlier in April fell across the board, indicating that the economic growth in the second quarter may fall below 7.5 percent." Shen Jianguang said

CPI in the second quarter may decline by "3" to "2"

the food price, which accounts for the largest weight in CPI, is still fluctuating at a low level, which is difficult to pose a threat to price inflation. According to the latest monitoring data of kenaf, a kind of food in late May, released by the National Bureau of statistics, 14 of the 27 kinds of food showed a downward trend compared with the middle of May, with the largest decline in vegetables, and the prices of beans and cucumbers fell by more than 10%; Among the rising categories, except for eggs, which increased by 6.2% compared with the previous monitoring, the rest increased by about 1% after careful analysis

however, this will not exert substantial pressure on CPI. A relevant person from the price department of the national development and Reform Commission said that the recent rise in egg prices was mainly affected by factors such as farmers' reduction in production due to the continuous decline in prices since September last year, and the decline in egg production of layers due to the warmer weather. It is expected that the price of eggs will continue to rise in the coming period, but there is little possibility of a sustained sharp rise

Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities, told that food prices continued to decline in May, with pork prices leading the decline; Thanks to the decline in the price of refined oil, non food prices may also decline. It is estimated that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in May will fall to about 3.2%, and "it may fall below 3% in the next two to three months."

Goldman Sachs Gaohua also predicted that the growth rate of CPI data in June is expected to fall below 3% for the first time since June 2010, which will leave more room for decision-makers to adopt further policy easing, including interest rate cuts

the risk of economic deflation looms

compared with the very definite downward trend of CPI, the PPI representing demand is also very concerned. The data has been declining for two consecutive months, and it may be difficult to reverse the decline in May

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, told that due to weak international and domestic market demand, the modified material of the Ministry of Commerce has better biocompatibility and bone fusion ability than the unmodified material. Monitoring the price of means of production in May and technical parameters: accuracy level of the experimental machine: Level 1, falling for four weeks. The year-on-year index of industrial producers' purchase prices has been declining for nine consecutive months. In addition, the international oil price continued to decline in May, and the upward pressure on the cost of domestic industrial products is small. Based on this, he predicted that the PPI in May may may fall to a negative value month on month. In addition, the tail raising factor is about 0.3 percentage points lower than that in April, and may continue to decline to about -1% year-on-year

the long destocking process of enterprises is not over, and the risk of local deflation in China's economy has begun to loom, and the digestion of production capacity has become a huge problem, especially in the productive industries in the middle and upper reaches

according to media reports, as of June 1, the social inventory of five steel varieties in 26 major markets in China was 15.615 million tons, with 371 bird's nests and 111 CCTV buildings

you Hongye, senior Macro Analyst of Anxin securities, told that the double downward pattern of economic growth and inflation was mainly caused by weak demand. The performance of industries closely related to economic growth in the upper and middle reaches was poor. Industries such as steel may not have capacity shortages in the next 3-5 years

in addition to seasonal and base factor disturbances, macroeconomic data in May continued to be depressed in April, which is the general expectation of many institutions. GF Securities predicts that industrial growth will rebound slightly to 10.1% in May due to the base effect, while fixed asset investment will fall below 20% and consumption data will be less than 14%, which will continue to hover at the low level in recent years

"the policy will make the bottom of the real economy come in advance and raise the bottom level, but it will not change the basic pattern of economic U-shaped adjustment." You Hongye said that at present, the real economy is on the left side of the U-shape, and it is difficult to recover effectively in the next oneortwo quarters. The GDP growth rate in the second and third quarters may be below 8%